Forbes.com: News

2012年2月28日星期二

Moody's: Greek Debt Default Risk 'Remains High'

The Moody's credit rating company says the risk of Greece defaulting on its loans "remains high," even after European leaders approved a new financial rescue for the country.

The financial services firm Monday called the $172 billion Greek rescue package, the country's second in two years, "an important step forward."  But Moody's said Greece's debt will "remain large" for years, even as large private creditors have agreed to eliminate more than half the debt the country owes them, a $142 billion reduction.

Moody's said the Athens government is unlikely to be able to secure new loans on its own in world financial markets when the bailout money runs out in the next few years.

Moody's bleak assessment came as Germany's parliament easily approved the bailout.  The move came as surveys in the country showed that Germans overwhelmingly oppose further assistance for Greece.  Germany's largest newspaper, Bild, ran a front-page headline saying "Stop!" and urged lawmakers to vote against the Greek bailout.

But German Chancellor Angela Merkel told lawmakers that rejecting it could cause unforeseen problems for Europe and the global economy.

"Nobody can say what the consequence of a denial of a second bail-out program for Greece will have for the other countries of the program like Portugal and Ireland, maybe even Spain and Italy, eventually to the euro zone as a whole and then the entire world," she said. 

On Sunday, finance ministers from the world's 20 leading economies said the European Union must commit more money to a fund aimed at containing the eurozone debt crisis before other nations will provide additional resources to the International Monetary Fund.  European governments have already established a $672 billion rescue fund for future financial emergencies that is set to take effect in July, but G20 countries are pressing Europe to combine that with money remaining in a temporary fund to create a $1 trillion account.

After a two-day meeting in Mexico City, the G20 issued a statement saying that while recent signs point to a "modest global recovery," high risks remain.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said none of the G20 countries argued with the necessity of expanding the IMF financial firewall.  The Washington-based agency is seeking a $500 billion fund to go along with a "properly sized" commitment from Europe. "They all expect that the eurozone, the euro area rather, will strengthen, consolidate, reinforce its firewall and make sure that it is both adequate and credible before they look at increasing the firepower of the (IMF) fund," she said. 

European countries have pledged nearly $200 billion to the IMF, but so far other countries have been reluctant to contribute more money unless Europe bolsters its own rescue fund.  The 17 countries that use the euro currency are set to discuss the "strength" of their bailout resources next month.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said G20 ministers are encouraged about the progress Europe has made in the past few months, but that rescue funds are not the only solution to the crisis. "A durable solution requires both a sustained period of economic reform and a substantial financial firewall to support those reforms.  European policy makers recognize the magnitude of the challenges ahead and they will be reviewing additional steps in the weeks ahead," he said. 

Following the G20 meeting, European economic minister Olli Rehn praised what he called a "clear roadmap" and said he was confident of a positive conclusion.

Airlines Try In-Flight Pitches to Raise Revenue


Your flight crew - and sales staff.

Flight attendant asks passengers to sign up for Bank of America credit card
A number of U.S. airlines are in financial trouble. Several have merged or will do so soon.
Just about all of them are charging fees for checked bags, and selling, rather than giving away, whatever food is offered onboard.

And many are turning to in-flight sales pitches to raise money.
On a recent flight, we heard an attendant make a cabin announcement asking passengers to consider signing up for a Bank of America credit card.

Where could this lead?

We can just hear the little bing chime, followed by:
“Uh, this is Captain Bigley from the flight deck. Welcome aboard Cash-Strapped Airlines flight 241.  And speaking of two-for-one, a reminder that you can stay two nights at Happy Inn Motels across America for the price of one. Our destination is Denver, where the folks at Reliable Rent-a-Car are waiting to serve you. So sit back in your seats by Ferndale Furniture, purchase a couple of Frosty-Up Sodas, and enjoy your flight. When we reach our cruising altitude, the flight attendants will be by, selling Cash-Strapped Airlines’ Scratch-off Lottery tickets.”
A typical in-flight “meal” these days. On the wrapper, note the ad promoting the airline’s frequent-flier program.
Bob B. Brown, Flickr Creative Commons
A typical in-flight “meal” these days. On the wrapper, note the ad promoting the airline’s frequent-flier program.
Then the bing chime again.

“And good morning from your cabin crew. I’m Debbie, your sales manager. You’ll notice we’re all wearing fashions by Franco Bistelli, on sale this week only. We’ll be passing through the cabin with coupons good for a free drink at Freddy’s Lounge in Denver. And if you need some extra cash, a friendly loan officer from First Second Bank - “where we take your money with a smile” - will be on hand back in Coach to assist you. And check under your seats, where 10 lucky passengers will find vouchers good for 20-percent off your next purchase of perfumes by Pierre of Paris.”

On-board movie channels are already peppered with commercials. And we’ve seen advertisements on passenger tray tables. Can entire airplanes, plastered with beer ads, be far behind?

Wary Businesses Consider Investments as US Economy Improves

Jim Randle



A workman welds a tank at JV Northwest, which manufactures stainless steel vessels, in Camby, Oregon, February 13, 2012.
Photo: AP
A workman welds a tank at JV Northwest, which manufactures stainless steel vessels, in Camby, Oregon, February 13, 2012.
The battered U.S. housing and job markets are improving as uncertainty about economic forecasts declines, according to a just-published study by dozens of key economists. Other research shows growing confidence could translate into more business investment and jobs.
Forty-five experts who analyze economic issues for major companies say a flurry of mostly upbeat economic reports means U.S. unemployment and job creation are getting better.
Members of the National Association for Business Economics [NABE] say they expect the U.S. jobless rate to average 8.3 percent for this year, which is six-tenths of a percentage point better than their prediction just a few months ago.
NABE member Shawn DuBravac said companies are encouraged by growing confidence in economic forecasts, and willing to bet on future economic growth.
“There is less uncertainty, that makes companies more willing to take on new hires, to bring on and create new jobs," said DuBravac.
DuBravac said the survey shows that companies now are boosting their spending on machines, materials, and the equipment needed for employees to be productive.
U.S. companies have hundreds of billions of dollars in reserve that could be used to increase business investment and hiring, according to a recent study by University of Maryland economists including Jeff Werling.
Werling said companies were badly stung by the recession, however, and have been slow to consider new investments.
“From the perspective of the consumer and some corporations, the financial crisis dealt their balance sheets such a blow [depleted their assets so much] that they just can not get there yet," he said.
Werling’s research was conducted for a U.N. agency.
Companies spent the first part of the recession cutting costs and workers, striving for greater efficiency to survive as business became ever more competitive. But the NABE’s DuBravac said firms have done just about everything they can think of to boost the productivity of the current work force.
“Corporations are moving into a period where if they want to continue to grow and capture these opportunities, they will eventually have to expand their labor force,” said DuBravac.
The business economists say improvements in business spending and jobs are easing the problems in the battered housing market, and predict a sharp improvement in housing starts this year.
They are less optimistic about exports, predicting the rate of growth in that key sector will slow down.

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